Canadian Private Fleet Returns to Slow Growth in 2020

by Adam Hunt

After the Canadian private civil aircraft fleet showed almost no growth at all in 2019, 2020 saw a small increase of 0.31%. The overall civil aircraft fleet grew by 0.06%. Given the year we just finished, which was dominated by a global pandemic and associated stay-at-home orders, any growth at all was quite remarkable.

Since 2015 the growth in the private fleet in Canada has been at very low levels. While the 2020 numbers are up from 2019's 0.05% growth, the last five years are far from the peak growth of 2008, just before the Great Recession hit, when the private fleet was growing at a peak annual rate of 3.2%. As the accompanying graph shows, growth rates in the private fleet have been in a fairly consistent decline since the 2008-10 recession started and have not recovered. The graph shows a modest recovery in 2010-11, after the recession, but then drops rapidly and does not reflect the general recovery seen in the Canadian economy. The low Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, has probably been a factor and its effect can be seen in the net number of certified aircraft exported.

The global economy crashed in 2020, of course, as COVID-19 swept across the world, but the US dollar remained fairly high against the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar ended the year at 78.5 cents US, up just 1.5 cents since the end of 2019. Once again, the low Canadian dollar resulted in a net flow of used certified aircraft out of Canada, mostly to US buyers.

In 2020, the total Canadian civil fleet increased in size by 22 aircraft. Over the year the private segment of the fleet increased by 91 aircraft, while the commercial aircraft fleet decreased by 65 aircraft as air carriers shed airplanes as demand disappeared. The state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, decreased by four aircraft.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft had been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years when the Canadian dollar was high, but that trend changed in 2015 when we lost 103 certified aircraft and accelerated in 2016 with the falling Canadian dollar, as we lost 161 certified aircraft. In 2017, we lost 69 certified aircraft and, as the dollar fell in 2018, that increased to 117. In 2019, that accelerated to a loss of 132 aircraft and 2020 at least reduced that trend, as only 44 more aircraft were lost.

In 2020, the changes to the private certified fleet were made up of a reduction of 92 airplanes and one glider, while helicopters increased by 48. Private certified balloons were up by one. The 2020 decline included 56 single-engined aircraft and one four-engined aircraft, while twins increased by 12 aircraft.

There were 15,770 private certified aircraft at the end of 2020, out of a total of 29,559 private aircraft registered or 53% of the private fleet.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were once again where the growth was in private aviation in Canada in 2020, as the case has been for several years now. During 2020, the category increased by 100 aircraft, up from the growth of 95 in 2019. There were 6,531 BULAs registered at the end of 2020.

Transport Canada reported the addition of one BULA glider, but that has to be a reporting error, as the category is only open to powered aircraft.

The attraction of this category undoubtedly remains its low cost.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number two growth position again in 2020, increasing by 35 aircraft, a large drop from the 64 aircraft added in 2019, though. In 2020, the aircraft added were made up of 28 airplanes, three helicopters and five amateur-built balloons, minus the loss of one gyroplane.

Amateur-builts now number 4,379 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons and even one ornithopter, although the latter is in a museum.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 19 aircraft in 2020, just two more than in 2019. This makes it the category with the third best growth for 2020, behind basic ultralights and amateur-builts. All the growth this year was in airplanes, with no changes to the number of gliders. By the end of 2020, there were 777 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 760 airplanes and 17 gliders.

It is worth noting that aircraft are not built in this category, but are mostly existing Canadian certified aircraft that are moved to O-M. Some may be certified aircraft imported from other countries into the O-M category as well.

The O-M category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or be sold in the USA.

Advanced Ultralights

In 2019 the AULA numbers actually dropped by two aircraft, but this past year they increased by four airplanes, bringing the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,256. By its category definition, AULAs are all powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2020 was its 29th year in existence. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 43 aircraft per year since its inception and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started.

Commercial Fleet

In 2020, the commercial aircraft fleet decreased by 65 aircraft to bring the number down to 7,100. The numbers show a decrease of 41 airplanes and 26 helicopters, with the addition to the fleet of one commercial glider and one balloon.

In round numbers, at the end of 2020 the private fleet made up 80% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at 1%, all basically unchanged in recent years.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2020 numbered 411, which was up from 568 in 2019, and well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008.

In 2020, 761 aircraft were exported, a decrease from the 894 aircraft exported last year. There were 350 more aircraft exported than imported, a net loss to the fleet that was lower than the 326 recorded in 2019.

Conclusions

2020 was certainly a year unlike any other in recent memory, although the Canadian private civil aircraft fleet actually had a worse year in 2019 when the economy was doing much better. In the last five years the growth that has been seen in the private fleet has been in the lowest-cost end of the fleet, while many higher-value certified aircraft are being exported. Perhaps the slight rebound this year was due to pilots buying aircraft with the money that they were not able to spend on vacations?

Note: Aircraft data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2019 and 31 December 2020. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.

Canadian Private Fleet Growth Drops to Zero in 2019

This article appeared in the February 2020 edition of COPA Flight magazine

by Adam Hunt

Growth declined to virtually zero in the Canadian private civil aircraft fleet in 2019. During the year the private fleet grew by only 15 aircraft, which is 0.05%, while the overall civil aircraft fleet grew by 151 aircraft or 0.41%.

The 2019 numbers are a drop from the 0.28% growth seen in 2018 and far off the peak growth of 2008, just before the Great Recession hit, when the private fleet grew at a peak rate of 3.2%. As the accompanying graph shows, growth rates in the private fleet have been in general decline since the 2008-10 recession started. The graph shows a modest recovery in 2010-11, after the recession, but then drops rapidly and does not reflect the general recovery seen in the Canadian economy. The low Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, has probably been a factor and its effect can be seen in the net number of certified aircraft exported.

The US economy continued to do well in 2019 and its dollar remained fairly high against the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar ended the year at 77 cents US, up four cents since the end of last year. Once again, the low dollar resulted in a net flow of used certified aircraft out of Canada, mostly to US buyers.

In 2019, the total Canadian civil fleet increased in size by 151 aircraft. In 2019, the private segment of the fleet increased by just 15 aircraft, while the commercial aircraft fleet increased by 153 aircraft and the state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, decreased by 17 aircraft.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft had been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years when the Canadian dollar was high, but that trend changed in 2015 when we lost 103 certified aircraft and accelerated in 2016 with the falling Canadian dollar, as we lost 161 certified aircraft. In 2017, we lost 69 certified aircraft and, as the dollar fell in 2018, that increased to 117. In 2019, that accelerated to a loss of 132 aircraft.

In 2019, the changes to the private certified fleet were made up of a reduction of 135 airplanes, while helicopters increased by 17 and gliders decreased by two. Private certified balloons were down by 12. The 2019 decline included 137 single-engined aircraft and one four-engined aircraft, while twins increased by 20 aircraft.

There were 15,814 private certified aircraft at the end of 2019, out of a total of 29,468 private aircraft registered or 54% of the private fleet.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were once again where the growth was in private aviation in Canada in 2019, as the case has been for several years. During the year, the category increased by 95 aircraft, down from the growth of 118 in 2018. There were 6,431 BULAs registered at the end of 2019.

The attraction of this category undoubtedly remains its low cost.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 17 aircraft in 2019, the same number as in both 2017 and 2018. This makes it the category with the third best growth for 2019, behind basic ultralights and amateur-builts. All the growth this year was in airplanes, with no changes to the number of gliders. By the end of 2019, there were 758 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 741 airplanes and 17 gliders.

It is worth noting that aircraft are not built in this category, but are mostly existing Canadian certified aircraft that are moved to O-M. Some may be certified aircraft imported from other countries into the O-M category as well.

The O-M category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or be sold in the USA.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number two growth position again in 2019, increasing by 64 aircraft, a large jump from the 37 aircraft added in 2018. In 2019, the aircraft added were made up of 59 airplanes, six helicopters and three amateur-built balloons, minus the loss of one glider and three gyroplanes.

Amateur-builts now number 4,344 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons and even one ornithopter, although the latter is in a museum.

Advanced Ultralights

In a trend never seen before, in 2019 the number of advanced ultralights decreased by two airplanes. Their drop this year brought the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,252. By its category definition, AULAs are all powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2019 was its 28th year in existence. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 45 aircraft per year since its inception and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started. It will be interesting to see if the category recovers in 2020, or if it sees further shrinkage.

Commercial Fleet

In 2019, the commercial aircraft fleet increased by 153 aircraft to bring the number up to 7,165. The numbers show an increase of 126 airplanes and 25 helicopters, with the addition of two commercial balloons.

In round numbers, at the end of 2019 the private fleet made up 80% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at 1%, all basically unchanged in recent years.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2019 numbered 568, which was up from 552 in 2018, but well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008.

In 2019, 894 aircraft were exported, an increase from the 790 aircraft exported last year. There were 326 more aircraft exported than imported, a net loss that was much higher than the 238 in 2018.

Conclusions

With the continuing loss of certified private aircraft exported mainly to the US, the private civil aircraft fleet saw essentially zero growth in 2019. This was a continuation of the trend seen over the last five years and this is despite the national economy doing well in this period. The growth that has been seen in the private fleet has been in the lowest-cost end of the fleet, while many higher-value certified aircraft are being exported. Factors such as increasing aircraft ownership costs, including high avgas prices; Transport Canada's over-regulation of personal aviation; airport closures; increasing public concern about climate change and burning fossil fuel for recreational activities; low interest in aviation careers by young people, due to low wages and increasing automation, despite a growing commercial pilot shortage; and an aging private pilot population, are all contributing to the lack of growth in the field.

Note: Aircraft data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2018 and 31 December 2019. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.

Stanley Victoria Day Fly-In Breakfast 2019

Hanover Rust Remover 2019

The Canadian Private Fleet Growth Drops in 2018

by Adam Hunt

Growth declined in the Canadian private civil aircraft fleet in 2018, after increasing slightly in 2017. In 2018 the private fleet grew by 82 aircraft, which is 0.28%, while the overall civil aircraft fleet grew by 129 aircraft or 0.35%.

The 2018 numbers are a drop from the 0.35% growth seen in 2017 and far off the peak growth of 2008, just before the recession hit, when the private fleet grew at a peak rate of 3.2%. As the accompanying graph shows, growth rates in the private fleet have been in general decline since the 2008-10 recession started. The numbers seem to not reflect the recovery seen in the overall Canadian economy. The low Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, has probably also been a factor and its effect can be seen in the net number of certified single and twin-engined aircraft exported.

The US economy continued to do well in 2018 and its dollar remained fairly high against the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar ended the year at 73 cents US, down seven cents since the end of last year. Once again the low dollar resulted in a net flow of used certified aircraft out of Canada, mostly to US buyers.

In 2018 the total Canadian civil fleet increased in size by 129 aircraft. In 2018 the private segment of the fleet increased by 82 aircraft, while the commercial aircraft fleet increased by 60 aircraft and the state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, decreased by 13 aircraft.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft had been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years when the Canadian dollar was high, but that trend changed in 2015 when we lost 103 certified aircraft and accelerated in 2016 with the falling Canadian dollar, as we lost 161 certified aircraft. In 2017 we lost 69 certified aircraft and, as the dollar fell in 2018, that increased to 117.

In 2018 the changes to the private certified fleet were made up of a reduction of 117 airplanes, while helicopters increased by seven and gliders increased by one. Private certified balloons were down by eight. The 2018 decline included 71 single-engined aircraft, 37 twins and one three-engined aircraft.

There were 15,946 private certified aircraft at the end of 2018, out of a total of 29,453 private aircraft registered or 54% of the private fleet.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were once again where the growth was in private aviation in Canada in 2018, as the case has been for several years. During the year the category increased by 118 aircraft, an increase from the growth of 101 in 2015, 104 in 2016 and 98 in 2017. There were 6,336 BULAs registered at the end of 2018.

The attraction of this category undoubtedly remains its low cost.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number two growth position again in 2018, increasing by 37 aircraft, up from 35 aircraft in 2017, although down from a high of 67 in 2014. Interest in this category seems to be slowly trending downwards over time. In 2018 the aircraft added were made up of 39 airplanes and one amateur-built balloon, minus the loss of two gliders and one gyroplane. Airships and helicopters saw no new net additions this past year.

Amateur-builts now number 4,280 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons, airships and even one ornithopter, although the latter is in a museum.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 17 aircraft in 2018, the same number as in 2017, which is down from the 42 added in 2015 and 34 in 2016. This makes it the category with the third best growth for 2018, behind basic ultralights and amateur-builts. There were actually 18 airplanes added and one glider removed, for a total 17. By the end of 2018, there were 741 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 724 airplanes and 17 gliders.

It is worth noting that aircraft are not built in this category, but are mostly existing Canadian certified aircraft that are moved to O-M. Some may be certified aircraft imported from other countries into the O-M category, as well.

The O-M category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or sold in the USA.

Advanced Ultralights

Advanced ultralights were in fourth place for growth again in 2018, increasing their numbers by 13 airplanes, well down from the 20 added in 2015. Their growth this year brought the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,254. By its category definition, AULAs are all powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2018 was its 27th year in existence. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 46 aircraft per year since its inception and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started. As in recent years, the number of AULAs added in 2018 was well below the average from the category's earlier years. The low sales figures are mostly likely linked to the high price of new AULAs and their American counter-parts, Light-Sport Aircraft. US LSAs are also seeing very anemic sales numbers, far below the initial expectations in the US.

Commercial Fleet

In 2018 the commercial aircraft fleet increased by 60 aircraft to bring it up to 7,012. The numbers show an increase of 40 airplanes and 21 helicopters, with the addition of one commercial glider, the sole one registered. Two commercial balloons were removed from the register.

In round numbers, at the end of 2018 the private fleet made up 80% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at 1%, all basically unchanged in recent years.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2018 numbered 552, which was up from 527 in 2017, but well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008.

In 2018, 790 aircraft were exported, well up from the 675 aircraft exported last year. There were 238 more aircraft exported than imported, a net loss that was much higher than the 148 in 2017.

Conclusions

With the continuing loss of certified private aircraft exported mainly to the US, the private civil aircraft fleet saw near-zero growth in 2018. This was a continuation of the trend seen over the last four years and has been occurring despite the national economy doing well in this period. The growth that has been seen in the private fleet has been in the lowest-cost end of the fleet, while many higher-value certified aircraft are being exported. Factors such as increasing aircraft ownership costs, including high avgas prices; Transport Canada's over-regulation of personal aviation; airport closures, increasing lack of public support for burning fossil fuel for recreational activities; low interest in aviation careers by young people, due to low wages and increasing automation, despite a growing commercial pilot shortage; and an aging private pilot population, are all contributing to the lack of growth in the field.

Note: Aircraft data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2017 and 31 December 2018. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.

CYOW noise NOIse NOISE!!!

I attended Ottawa Macdonald Cartier International Airport Noise Management Committee meeting on 21 March 2018. It was one of the best noise management meetings I have attended. Neighbours of the airport were represented by 5 local folks. Also at the meeting was representation from Ottawa Flying Club and Ottawa Aviation Services. Others attendees represented the Airport Authority, Nav Canada, Transport Canada, the city of Ottawa and the Canadian Owners and Pilots Association.

The flight training folks that operate light aircraft generate most noise complaints at Ottawa. More on this issue in a moment. There are relatively few noise complaints about jet or turboprop airliners. In fact, complaints about airliners mostly happens during unusual operations, like when a runway is closed for maintenance. One example was the spike in complaints from the Aylmer area of Quebec when due to runway maintenance more airliners landed on runway 14. That put them lower over Aylmer than normally happens. They were seen and heard.

As noted above, the bulk of noise complaints were due to light aircraft in the circuit for either runway 22 or 04. The community representatives asked questions and gave their observations on the traffic they found most distressing. They were very concerned with noise level and frequency of noise events. The representatives from the Ottawa Flying Club and Ottawa Aviation Services said they would do their best to mitigate the noise. They offered to look a flight paths and altitudes in the circuits. There was some suggestion that some circuit aircraft were flying too low, but the airport and Transport Canada said there was little proof of frequent low flying. Both flight training organizations noted that they chastise low flyers and impose corrective measures on the pilots, even cancelling their flying privileges when necessary. They also noted that they would consider quieter mufflers, if they were available and certified in Canada.

One of the airport’s neighbours asked if the flight training could be stopped or at least less frequent, particularly on weekends. The two flight training operations noted that they would go out of business if they could not service their customers/members on the weekends. One of the complainers suggested that the flight training operations were putting their business needs above those impacted by the noise. Both flight training operations offered to do all they could to mitigate the noise. I thought they were most respectful in not pointing out that their families’ well being depended on doing perfectly legal activity of flight training in a manner consistent with all aviation regulations.

Both flight training operations offered to take the locals for familiarization flights so they could see what pilots see. Hopefully that will happen.

The airport noted that they investigate noise complaints but found it very difficult to resolve them without specific information on the time and location of the events. Transport Canada noted that they were conducting investigations of 3 infractions, but that there really was not a problem of frequent low flying at Ottawa airport. They also noted that circuits at Ottawa are a hundred feet or so higher than is the standard 1000 feet above an airport’s elevation across the country.

It was agreed that meetings with community representatives would occur more regularly.

Finally it was noted that runway 04-22 will experience short term closures in the near future. Pilots are reminded to check NOTAMS.

Michael Shaw, former Captain of COPA Flight 8 Ottawa, airmail@rogers.com

The Canadian Private Fleet Rebounds (Slightly) in 2017

by Adam Hunt

Some growth returned to the Canadian private civil aircraft fleet in 2017, after a flat year in 2016. In 2017 the private fleet grew by 101 aircraft, which is 0.35%, while the overall civil aircraft fleet grew by 135 aircraft or 0.37%.

This is the best growth rate we have seen since 2014, but far off the peak growth pace in 2008, just before the recession hit, when the private fleet grew at a peak rate of 3.2%. As the accompanying graph shows, this is the first sign of a reversal from the drop in growth seen due to the 2008-10 recession. In all cases the numbers seem to reflect a cautiously growing Canadian economy, but the low dollar has also had some effects, as can be seen in the number of certified aircraft exported.

The US economy continued to do well in 2017 and its dollar remained fairly high against the Canadian dollar. With the Canadian dollar ending the year at 80 cents US, this resulted in a net flow of used certified aircraft out of Canada, mostly to US buyers.

In 2017 the total Canadian civil fleet increased in size by 135 aircraft. The private segment of the fleet increased by 101 aircraft in 2017, while the commercial aircraft fleet increased by 32 aircraft and the state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, grew by two aircraft.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft had been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years when the Canadian dollar was high, but that trend changed in 2015 when we lost 103 certified aircraft and accelerated in 2016 with the falling Canadian dollar, as we lost 161 certified aircraft. In 2017 we lost 69 certified aircraft.

In 2017 the changes to the private certified fleet were made up of a reduction of 80 airplanes, while helicopters increased by seven and gliders increased by three. Private certified balloons were up by one.

There were 16,063 private certified aircraft at the end of 2017, out of a total of 29,371 private aircraft registered or 55%.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were once again where the growth was in private aviation in 2017, as the case has been for several years. During the year the category increased by 98 aircraft, only down slightly from the growth of 101 in 2015 and 104 in 2016. There were 6,218 BULAs registered at the end of 2017.

The attraction of this category is undoubtedly low cost.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 17 aircraft in 2017, down from the 42 added in 2015 and 34 in 2016, making it the category with the third best growth for 2017, behind basic ultralights and amateur-builts. The 17 aircraft added were all airplanes, no gliders this year. By the end of 2017, there were 724 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 706 airplanes and 18 gliders.

It is worth noting that aircraft are not built in this category, but are mostly existing Canadian certified aircraft that are moved to O-M. Some may be certified aircraft imported from other countries into the O-M category, as well.

The O-M category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or sold in the USA.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number two growth position in 2017, increasing by 35 aircraft, up from 28 aircraft in 2016, although down from an increase of 44 in 2015 and 67 in 2014. Interest in this category seems to be slowly trending downwards over time. In 2017 the aircraft added were made up of 37 airplanes, minus the loss of two helicopters and one gyroplane, with the addition of one amateur-built balloon. Airships and gliders saw no new net additions this past year.

Amateur-builts now number 4,243 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons, airships and even one ornithopter, although the latter is in a museum.

Advanced Ultralights

Advanced ultralights were in fourth place for growth again in 2017, increasing their numbers by only six airplanes, well down from the 20 added in 2015. Their growth this year brought the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,241. By its category definition, all AULAs are powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2017 was its 26th year in existence. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 48 aircraft per year since its inception and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started. As in recent years, the number of AULAs added in 2017 was well below the average from the category's earlier years. The low sales figures are mostly likely linked to the high price of new AULAs and their American counter-parts, Light-Sport Aircraft. US LSAs are also seeing very anemic sales numbers, far below the initial expectations in the US.

Commercial Fleet

In 2017 the commercial aircraft fleet increased by 32 aircraft to bring it up to 6,952. The numbers show an increase of 53 airplanes and a loss of 37 helicopters, with an increase of one commercial balloon.

In round numbers, at the end of 2017 the private fleet made up 80% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at 1%, all basically unchanged in recent years.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2017 numbered 527, which was up from 398 in 2016, but well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008.

In 2017, 675 aircraft were exported, down from 786 last year. There were 148 more aircraft exported than imported.

Conclusions

Aside from a continuing loss of certified private aircraft exported mainly to the US, the private civil aircraft fleet saw a slight rebound after years of ever-slowing growth numbers, although most of the growth is in the lowest-cost end of the fleet. Whether this trend will continue over the next few years remains to be seen, as factors such as increasing aircraft ownership costs, lack of support among younger people for burning fossil fuel for recreational activities, low interest in aviation careers due to low wages and automation, and an aging private pilot population limit possible growth in the field.

Note: Aircraft data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2016 and 31 December 2017. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.

The Canadian Private Fleet Hits Zero Growth in 2016

Growth in the Canadian private civil aircraft fleet was essentially flat in 2016, growing by just 34 aircraft, or 0.12%, essentially nil growth. This was the lowest number recorded since the turn of the millennium and far worse than at any time during the recession of 2008-10.

Since 2001 the best growth we have seen was in 2008, just before the recession hit, when the private fleet grew at a peak rate of 3.2%. As the accompanying graph shows this is not a one year blip, but is a long term structural change happening in private flying, one that is being driven by some larger economic and demographic forces.

The forces at work here probably include the ongoing flat state of the Canadian economy, the low dollar relative to the US and demographic factors involving an aging pilot population. The figures for 2016 don't yet reflect the effect of higher oil prices that are expected in 2017 as a result of the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts that won't be felt until much later in the new year, or new government carbon pricing initiatives.

The US economy continued to do well in 2016 and its dollar remained fairly high against the Canadian dollar. With the Canadian dollar ending the year at 74 cents US, Canadian aircraft asking prices in US dollars have dropped enough to result in a net flow of used certified aircraft out of Canada.

For the first time in the 21st century, the overall Canadian civil fleet size, including private, commercial and state aircraft, actually shrunk in 2016.

In 2016 the total Canadian civil fleet decreased in size by four aircraft, down from an increase of 66 in 2015. In 2016 the private segment of the fleet increased by 34 aircraft, while the commercial aircraft fleet decreased by 28 aircraft and the state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, shrank by ten aircraft. Overall the civil fleet size was essentially flat in 2016.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft had been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years, but that trend changed in 2015 when we lost 103 certified aircraft. This accelerated in 2016, as aircraft left the country in larger numbers, as we lost 161 certified aircraft.

In 2016 the changes to the private certified fleet were made up of a reduction of 127 airplanes (notably including 42 twins), 31 helicopters and three gliders.

There were 16,132 private certified aircraft at the end of 2016, out of a total of 29,270 private aircraft registered or 55%.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were once again where the growth was in private aviation in 2016. During the year the category increased by 104 aircraft, virtually unchanged from the growth of 101 in 2015. There were 6,120 BULAs registered at the end of 2016.

The enduring attraction of this category undoubtedly remains that it is the lowest cost way of buying an aircraft.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 34 aircraft in 2016, down from the 42 added in 2015, but enough to make it the category with the second best growth for 2016, behind basic ultralights. The 34 aircraft added were all airplanes, no gliders this year. By the end of 2016, there were 707 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 689 airplanes and 18 gliders.

It is worth noting that aircraft are not built in this category, but are mostly existing Canadian certified aircraft that are move to O-M. Some may also be certified aircraft imported from other countries into the O-M category, as well.

The O-M category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or sold in the USA.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number three growth position in 2016, increasing by 28 aircraft, although down from an increase of 44 in 2015 and 67 in 2014. Interest in this category seems to be waning over time. In 2016 the aircraft added were made up of 22 airplanes, four helicopters and two gyroplanes. Airships, balloons and gliders saw no new net additions this past year.

Amateur-builts now number 4,208 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons, airships and even one ornithopter, although the latter is confined to a museum.

Advanced Ultralights

Advanced ultralights were in fourth place for growth again in 2016, increasing their numbers by only five airplanes, well down from 20 in 2015 and 17 in 2014. Their growth this year brought the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,235. By its category definition, all AULAs are powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2016 was its 25th anniversary year. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 49 aircraft per year since its inception and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started. As in recent years, the number of AULAs added in 2016 was well below the average from the category's earlier years. The low sales figures are mostly likely linked to the high price of new AULAs and their American counter-parts, Light-Sport Aircraft. US LSAs are likewise seeing very anemic sales numbers, far below expectations.

Commercial Fleet

In 2016 the commercial aircraft fleet decreased by 28 aircraft to bring it down to 6,920. The numbers show a decrease of seven airplanes and 23 helicopters, with an increase of one commercial gyroplane.

In round numbers, at the end of 2016 the private fleet made up 80% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at 1%, all basically unchanged from 2015.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2016 numbered 398, which was down from 506 in 2015 and well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008. Canadians are just not buying foreign aircraft like they once did, likely due to the low dollar and demographics taking more people out of flying than coming in.

In 2016, 786 aircraft were exported, giving a difference of 388 favouring exported aircraft over those imported.

Demographics

As recent survey data shows, recreational flying is something being done by an increasing older group of participants each year. This is a concern from several perspectives, as people retire from flying due to age or leave for medical reasons and few young people enter the field. This means that used aircraft prices fall due to fewer buyers, airports and aviation businesses close due to loss of customers and overall aviation shrinks due to loss of participation, fuel and insurance sales drop. This all reduces economies of scale, makes it more expensive and less attractive over time to get into. As the flying population ages, it is also increasingly seen by younger people as something only done by older people.

This is not a universally-seen effect across the range of all recreational activities, however. Many Canadian sailing clubs, for instance, report strong numbers of new youth and young families joining, for both cruising and racing, driven by such factors as low costs, low regulatory barriers and low environmental impacts, areas where aviation has trouble competing for participants. So it isn't that young people are just playing Pokemon-Go and avoiding all other activities, but that aviation specifically is not attracting them.

Looking at 2017

World oil prices increased near the end of the year to around US$56 per barrel due to the anticipated OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts, which are aimed at eliminating the current world oil glut and increasing oil prices in 2017. A prolonged increase in the price of fuel will likely reduce demand for aircraft and result in dropping used aircraft prices. OPEC seems to be intending to increase their returns on their conventional oil supplies, while not letting prices get high enough to allow the increase of North American shale and oil sands production back to previous levels. If they miscalculate, create a shortage and oil prices increase back to over $100 per barrel, this will probably strengthen the Canadian dollar and reduce used aircraft prices for Canadians, even as it increases aircraft operating costs.

Note: Aircraft data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2015 and 31 December 2016. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.

The October 2016 Edition of the AIM Has Been Released

The 13 October 2016 copy of the Transport Canada Aeronautical Information Manual is now available for free download as a 38.6 MB sized PDF. The book is 510 pages in colour!

Transport Canada doesn't give a lot of stuff away for free anymore, so get your free copy of the newest edition of the AIM today.

External links

• TP 14371 - Transport Canada Aeronautical Information Manual

CYOW's Noisy News

Report from Noise Management Meeting Macdonald-Cartier International Airport 15 June 2016 by attendee Michael Shaw

Firstly, CYOW does not have a serious noise problem, at least not with airliners.

The Noisy News is that we, General Aviation types, are part of the problem. What! GA is noisy? Well, we are when we don’t follow the Noise Abatement procedures. It seems visiting pilots fail to check the Canada Flight Supplement when arriving and departing CYOW and fail to follow the Noise Abatement Procedures. The local flying schools are doing the job better than in the past.

Of course, that’s not the whole story. It seems the folks living on the departure from runway 04, (apparently several folks on one street) are the main complainers. I know, I know, they knew the airport was there when they moved there, or should have, but that does not stop them from complaining. And it doesn’t mean we or the airport can ignore them. I don’t know what we as pilots can do to safely mitigate their noise perceptions. We are following legal and appropriate departure paths. The airport is concerned too about what looks like a coordinated campaign.

The bottom line is we must at least follow the noise abatement procedures, it’s the law and we want to be part of the solution, not the problem, eh!

If you have any questions don’t hesitate to drop me a line.

Mike

Woodcomp SR-3000 propeller blade looseness

From Transport Canada

In a recent event, an amateur-built Pipistrel Virus SW experienced a severe vibration while cruising at approximately 1600 feet above ground level. The pilot reduced the engine power and the vibration was reduced. The pilot steered the aircraft towards an abandoned aerodrome, shut down the engine and deployed the ballistic parachute. The aircraft descended to the Aerodrome and landed upright on the wheels. The pilot was uninjured. Shortly after the pilot exited the aircraft, the deployed chute was caught by a gust of wind and the aircraft was pulled inverted to where it came to rest.

The examination of the aircraft revealed that one blade of the propeller, manufactured by Woodcomp, model SR3000, had detached. The remaining propeller blade, hub, and blade root of the detached blade were sent to the TSB Laboratory for further analysis.

The TSB Laboratory determined that fatigue cracks, likely assisted by corrosion, had developed in the bosses of both blade roots of the occurrence propeller. In the root boss of the blade that detached, the crack had caused the separation of the blade.

A similar crack was growing in the remaining root boss but did not cause blade separation because a short segment (about 8%) of the boss circumference still remained unbroken. Fatigue cracking was a result of looseness in the blade root (retainer, bearings, hub assemblies).

Corrosion due to moisture penetration accelerated the growth of the fatigue crack. All 3 bearings that were examined (2) pitch bearings and the detached blade rear bearing exhibited distress of the rolling contact surfaces due to moisture penetration. In addition, the inward race of the rear bearings of both blades was made from a softer material, resulting in its significant deterioration.

The propeller, model SR3000, was acquired new with the aircraft kit. By the time of the present occurrence it was in service for about 11 months and accumulated about 235 hours since new.

All owners are reminded that STD 625, Appendix C, paragraph 6, requires the following:

Fixed Pitch and Ground Adjustable Propellers:

(a) Fixed pitch wooden propellers shall be checked for tightness after the first 25 hours of air time following their installation and at each subsequent inspection (amended 2007/12/30);

(b) At intervals of not more than 5 years, the propeller shall be removed from the aircraft and inspected for corrosion or other defects over its entire surface, including the hub faces and the mounting hole bores. While the propeller is removed, it shall also be checked for correct dimensions. However, if defects which require repairs beyond those recommended as field repairs by the propeller manufacturer are found, the propeller shall be repaired by an organization approved for the overhaul of propellers (amended 2007/12/30).

External links

• COPA PDF of this article
• Woodcomp SR3000-2 product page

Transport Canada Safety Seminar in Ottawa

Transport Canada Civil Aviation Ontario Region presents "An Evening with the Canadian Military".

Join us as speakers from the Canadian Mission Control Centre (CMCC), Joint Rescue Co-ordination Centre (JRCC) Trenton and 424 Squadron provide information on a number of topics including:

• the Canadian Beacon Registry
• CMCC and Cospas-Sarsat
• JRCC Trenton
• rescue co-ordination
• search and rescue (SAR) missions
• safety

Attendees will qualify for the 2-year recency requirement as per CAR 421.05(2)(b).

Details

• Date Wednesday 24 February 2016
• Time 1900-2130 hrs. Doors open at 1830 for sign-in
• Location Algonquin College (Ottawa Campus) Classroom T119 (1st floor Building T), 1385 Woodroffe Avenue, Ottawa, ON K2G 1V8
• Parking Parking Lots 8 + 9 and enter through Building T.
• Contact Will Boles, Civil Aviation Safety Inspector, Standards Coordination, (416) 952-3858

New Trends In The Canadian Private Fleet During 2015

The Canadian private civil aircraft fleet continued to grow in 2015, but at an extremely slow rate, the lowest by far since the turn of the millennium and far worse than at any time during the recession of 2008-10.

In 2008 the fleet grew at a peak rate of 3.2%, but by 2015 it was down to just 0.25%.

The numbers seen continue to indicate that structural changes are occurring in the aircraft purchase market in Canada, probably as a result of the ongoing poor state of the Canadian economy, the falling dollar relative to the US and demographic factors involving an aging pilot population getting out of flying.

The US economy improved over 2015 and its dollar gained strongly against the Canadian dollar. With the Canadian dollar ending the year about 71 cents US, Canadian aircraft asking prices in US dollars seem to have dropped enough to result in a net flow of used certified aircraft out of Canada.

As I have noted in years past, even though the Canadian civil fleet has grown in size each year, the number of hours flown probably isn't increasing and may in fact be decreasing.

In 2015 the total Canadian civil fleet increased in size by just 66 aircraft, down from an increase of 296 in 2014. In 2015 the private segment of the fleet once again accounted for almost all the growth seen, increasing by 74, while the commercial aircraft fleet shrank by 16 aircraft and the state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, grew by eight aircraft. Overall the civil fleet was very stagnant in 2015.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft have been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years, but lost that lead to basic ultralights in 2014, probably because as the US dollar climbed it made importing aircraft into Canada more expensive. The numbers sharply reversed in 2015 as certified aircraft left the country, dropping by 103.

In 2015 the changes to the certified fleet were made up of a reduction of 108 airplanes, three gliders and five balloons, but an increase of 13 helicopters.

There were 16,293 private certified aircraft at the end of 2015, out of a total of 29,236 private aircraft registered or 56%.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were by far the quickest growing area of private aviation again in 2015. During the year the category increased by 101 aircraft. There were 6,016 BULAs registered at the end of 2015.

The enduring attraction of this category is undoubtedly its relatively low cost.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number two growth position again in 2015, increasing by 44 aircraft, although down from an increase of 67 in 2014. In 2015 the aircraft added were made up of 44 airplanes, three balloons and one helicopter, while the number of gliders decreased by two, with airships and gyroplanes reducing by one each.

Amateur builts now number 4,180 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons, airships and even one ornithopter.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 42 aircraft in 2015, up from the 26 added in 2014, leaving the category in third spot once again ahead of advanced ultralights. By the end of 2015, there were 673 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 655 airplanes and 18 gliders.

This category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or sold in the USA.

Advanced Ultralights

Advanced ultralights were in fourth place for growth in 2015, increasing their numbers by only 20 airplanes, up from 17 in 2014. Their growth brought the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,230. By the category definition, all AULAs are powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2015 was its 24th year. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 51 aircraft per year since its inception and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started. As in the past five years, the number of AULAs added in 2015 was well below the average from the category's earlier years. The low sales figures are mostly likely linked to the high price of new AULAs and their American counter-parts, Light-Sport Aircraft.

Commercial Fleet

In 2015 the commercial aircraft fleet decreased by 16 aircraft to bring it down to 6,948. The numbers show a decrease of three airplanes and 14 helicopters, with an increase of one balloon.

In round numbers, at the end of 2015 the private fleet made up 81% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at under 1%, all basically unchanged from 2014. As commercial aviation fails to grow, or even shrinks over time, private aviation is continuing to make up a greater proportion of the fleet.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2015 numbered 506, which was down from 619 in 2014 and well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008. In 2015, 879 aircraft were exported, giving a difference of 373 favouring exported aircraft over those imported.

Looking at 2016

World oil prices dropped below US$40 per barrel in 2015 taking the Canadian dollar down, as the world markets were still temporarily over-supplied with oil. Oddly, while automotive gasoline prices dropped to about 80 cents per litre, avgas generally stayed at double that price or higher. There remains a real risk in 2016-17 of a sudden increase in oil prices, as demand recovers in the face of the current loss of oil capital investment and the resulting supply shortages. A sudden and prolonged increase in the price of fuel will likely bring a recession with it and greatly reduce demand for aircraft, resulting in dropping prices.

Note: Data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2014 and 31 December 2015. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.

New AIM is out!

The 15 October 2015 copy of the Transport Canada Aeronautical Information Manual is now available for free download as a 38.1 MB sized PDF!

Transport Canada doesn't give a lot of stuff away for free these days, so get your free copy of the newest edition of the AIM today.

External links

• TP 14371 - Transport Canada Aeronautical Information Manual

Safety Alert on Unmanned Air Vehicles

Photo by Zimin.V.G.WikiMedia Commons

by Mélanie Drouin, Manager, Canadian Aviation Regulations Advisory Council, Transport Canada

Transport Canada issued a Civil Aviation Safety Alert to remind all persons operating unmanned aircraft (model aircraft and unmanned air vehicles or UAVs), for any purpose, about the safety impacts and consequences of interfering with manned aircraft operations, including firefighting aircraft.

This summer, a number of incidents occurred in British Columbia where manned aircraft fighting forest fires were grounded due to interference from unmanned aircraft. The Canadian Aviation Regulations state that no unauthorized person shall operate an aircraft within 5 nautical miles (9km) of a forest fire or within any associated restricted airspace.

The Civil Aviation Safety Alert is also a reminder of the consequences of contravening regulations pertaining to the use of unmanned aircraft.

Please distribute the Alert or this message where appropriate.

Greenbank and a Tale of Three Airports

Photo: Greenbank Airport before all the fuss

By Gord Mahaffy, COPA Flight 70, Oshawa

If you think that the concern over the proposed amendments to the National Aeronautics Act is overblown, consider this: In the space of one week there were three public meetings focused on changes to airports in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The first was in Oshawa on March 26 to consider the new Oshawa business plan which includes the Oshawa Airport.

The second was in Port Perry on March 30 to consider improvements to the Greenbank airport. The third was on March 31 to present a plan for extending the runways at Billy Bishop Toronto Island Airport (BBTIA). With the exception of a few COPA members all of these meetings were attended by people opposed to any kind of changes whatsoever and many of these people would like to see the airports closed.

There will be more comments on the developments at the BBTIA airport by members of COPA National but this article will be focused on Greenbank airport.

First some background on Greenbank. Up until 2008 it was owned and operated by Micky Jovkovic who was slowly making improvements. He planned to add hangars, pave the runway, and build a restaurant. Unfortunately Micky died tragically in August of 2008 and several years later the airport was sold to a numbered company.

While all this was happening another phenomenon was occurring driven by the explosive growth in construction in the Greater Toronto Area. The disposal of gravel being excavated from huge building projects such as the Toronto subway was proving difficult. This created a controversial industry; that of paying landowners for the privilege of dumping this fill on their land. Anyone with enough land could have truckloads of gravel dumped and make lots of money while being completely passive in the whole operation.

The downside to all of this is the damage to the environment that it causes and the noise and pollution it causes for the neighbors. If the soil is contaminated it can contaminate water supplies and cause serious health problems.

To control the effects of unrestricted dumping for profit most municipalities have strict by-laws that require the soil to be used for legitimate building purposes. Other conditions include limits on daily loads and soil testing on a regular basis.

Ah, but there is a loophole that unscrupulous operators can employ to get around municipal by- laws. If the property is an airport then it comes under federal jurisdiction and municipal by-laws don’t apply.So there exists the situation where a legitimate airport that wishes to expand their facilities can import the necessary fill and actually make some money from the process which will help defray the cost of improvements.

On the other hand there is a temptation to use an airport as a dumping ground just to collect dumping fees.

This is the situation that the Scugog Council was dealing with at their meeting on March 30. Most residents of the area believe that Greenbank airport is now just one big gravel dump and when all of the fill has been dumped in this pristine area it will simply be closed and the owners will walk away with the profits.

Less cynical people including many pilots hope that it will be completed as per plans and present Southern Ontario with a pristine, full service, state of the art airport with increased capacity for General Aviation.

When the project first started the owners of Greenbank voluntarily complied with local building regulations and agreed to pay the municipality a “Tipping Fee” for every cubic meter of fill dumped. This was enforced by a one year contract between the municipality and Greenbank.

But this contract expired on March 31 2015.

The Scugog Council extended this contract for one week and submitted a new set of restrictions for Greenbank to consider.

These new conditions include increasing the security deposit to $1 million, increasing insurance coverage to $10 million, eliminating Saturday deliveries of gravel, erecting a security fence, giving municipal inspectors full access to the site and allowing the municipality to do its own soil testing by drilling 50 foot deep wells 10 feet apart in critical areas.

If the owners of Greenbank accept these conditions then another one year contract will be signed and work may proceed. If the conditions are not acceptable then more negotiations will be needed and work will stop until an agreement can be reached.

As of this writing a new contract has not yet been signed.

New AIM is out!

The 02 April 2015 copy of the Transport Canada Aeronautical Information Manual is now available for free download as a 40 MB sized PDF!

Transport Canada doesn't give a lot of stuff away for free, so get your free AIM today

• TP 14371 - Transport Canada Aeronautical Information Manual

Urgent Action: Canadian Aviation Regulation Advisory (CARAC) developments

By Trekker Armstrong, Executive Chair, COPA

CARAC was established in 1993, and is a joint undertaking of the government and the aviation community, with participation from a large number of organizations outside Transport Canada with the intent of representing the overall viewpoint of the aviation community. COPA has been an active participant in these Focus Groups.

Transport Canada’s recent Notice of Proposed Amendment (NPA #2013-014) on aerodromes does not reflect accurately the efforts of the Focus Group and will materially damage COPA’s hard work and progress. As written, the NPA would cater to opponents and discriminate against the interests of the aviation enthusiast. The NPA has potential to significantly impact recreational aviation in general, and private owners and operators, in particular.

Transport Canada now wants to move from a permissive environment to what they call “participatory decision making” to ensure that local land use authorities and the public have input and indeed a greater say in whether or not an aerodrome can be established and developed. Furthermore this is also being extended to non-certified new and existing aerodromes. COPA provided direct input on the extent of damage this initiative will cause. COPA’s response can be found on COPA’s National website.

Given the far-reaching potential of this initiative, the industry responded with an unprecedented amount of feedback calling for a Focus Group meeting which finally occurred in June 2014. COPA was in attendance.

In October 2014, COPA, along with other participants of the Focus Group, was completely surprised that an amendment to the Aeronautical Act was hidden as part of the Federal Government’s omnibus budget Bill C-43. None of the participants of the Focus Group had knowledge of this development, or it’s content. Had the Focus Group known that the initiative extended as far as the Act amendment proposes, there would have been considerably different discussions about the implications of the expanded applicability. Given that there was no discussion or consultation with industry about the Act amendment itself and the scope of the application, the Act amendment should have be pulled from Bill C-43 to permit a thorough discussion with the industry.

COPA submitted a brief to the House Standing Committee on Finance and appeared before the Senate Committee on Wednesday, 19 November 2014. At that time COPA’s President & CEO Kevin Psutka asked the House Standing Committee on Transport and the Standing Senate Committee on Transport and Communications to vote in favor of returning the amendment to Transport Canada for consultation with the aviation industry.

Regardless of COPA’s and other industry efforts, Bill C-43 received Royal Assent on 16 December 2014 and is now law.

A continuation of the Focus Group meetings on the proposed Aerodrome NPA was planned for January 2015, but due to scheduling conflict, was postponed. In order to move forward with this initiative, Transport Canada indicated they would publish the Notice of Proposed Amendment (NPA) through the Canadian Aviation Regulation Advisory Council Activity Reporting System in early March 2015. COPA received email notification of the NPA on 26 February 2015. The disadvantage of issuing the NPAs before the Focus Group convenes will make it more difficult to change many of the measures. Now Transport Canada has scheduled the NPA Focus Group to discuss the regulatory proposal on 31 March and 1 April 2015.

As COPA continues to work on this issue, we strongly recommend that every member read the Notice of Proposed Amendment on Aerodromes and send in your written response to the CARAC secretariat (carrac@tc.gc.ca) with copies to COPA (pgilligan@copanational.org). COPA is in the process of drafting its position brief and it will be available at COPA "Take Action". The cutoff date for comments on this proposed rulemaking is 8 April 2015.

This issue is so important that every member should contact their MPP, MLA or Provincial Transport Minister. Contact information. The time for comment is very short on this critical issue that is fundamental to your Freedom to Fly in Canada.

New Strict Proposed Regulations For New & Existing Aerodromes

URGENT ACTION, 8 April 2015 Deadline!

From Patrick Gilligan, COPA

Transport Canada has just sent a new strict proposed regulation for all aerodromes. A consultation requirement with 27 "onerous" public notification steps estimated by TC to cost new and existing aerodrome owners up to $60,000.

The most devastating requirements are:

• The installation/aerodrome must adhere to local building and fire codes, no longer according to the National Building Code of Canada.
• Information on the environmental status of the project, including any requirements under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, 2012.

Public consultation

1. The public consultation process will apply to:
   a. A new aerodrome development
    i. Within a built-up area of a city or town;
    ii. In non-built up areas if
     1. It is within 4000m of a built-up area of a city or town;
     2. It is in or within 4000m of a protected area; or
     3. It is within 30 nautical miles of a registered or certified aerodrome.
   b. An existing aerodrome development if
    i. modifications result in changes to existing level(s) of service or operation; or
    ii. modifications result or could reasonably result in change(s) to existing usage.
2. Pre-Consultation: Proponents must notify NAV CANADA and Transport Canada of their aerodrome proposal regardless of the requirement to conduct a public consultation.

Action required

Until 8 April 2015, comments on this notice may be addressed, in writing, to:

CARAC Notice #2013-014 contact info: carrac@tc.gc.ca also please copy COPA’s National office by copying Patrick Gilligan who is the coordinator for COPA’s response.

Note: after this date, comments will no longer be considered in further revisions to the regulations and standards.

External links

• Notice of Proposed Amendment

Canadian Private Fleet Growth Slows Further In 2014

The Canadian private civil aircraft fleet continued to grow in 2014, but at a very slow rate, one that was lowest since 2001 and worse than at any time during the recession of 2008-10.

In 2008 the fleet grew at a peak rate of 3.2%. By 2012 it was down to just 1.96%, dropping to 1.92% in 2013 and now 1.21% in 2014.

The numbers seem to indicate that structural changes are occurring in the aircraft purchase market in Canada, probably as a result of the ongoing poor state of the Canadian economy, plus demographic factors involving an aging pilot population. As in all recent years, the fact that the fleet has continued to grow at all and not shrink is probably due to the persistently high asking prices for used aircraft in Canada. The US economy and its dollar remained somewhat weak through early 2014 and the Canadian dollar only fell precipitously with oil prices late in the year. With the Canadian dollar now at 85 cents US, Canadian aircraft asking prices in US dollars may have dropped enough to reduce the recent year's cross-border aircraft shopping spree which has driven up the overall number of aircraft registered in Canada. As I have noted in years past, even though the Canadian civil fleet has grown in size each year, the number of hours flown probably isn't increasing and may in fact be decreasing.

In 2014 the total Canadian civil fleet increased in size by 296, compared to 538 in 2013. In 2014 the private segment of the fleet once again accounted for all the growth seen, increasing by 349, while the commercial aircraft fleet shrank by 49 aircraft and the state fleet, those aircraft owned by the various levels of government in Canada, shrank by four aircraft. While private aviation is growing very slowly, state and commercial aviation both got smaller in 2014.

Certified Aircraft

Certified aircraft have been leading the growth in private aircraft for a number of years, including in 2013, but lost that lead to basic ultralights in 2014, probably because as the US dollar climbed it made importing aircraft more expensive. The numbers dropped in 2014 with 103 certified aircraft added, notably down from 2013's total of 187.

In 2014 the new additions to the certified fleet were made up of 66 airplanes, 40 helicopters and 1 balloon while the number of gliders was reduced by four. Certified aircraft accounted for 30% of the private fleet growth in 2014. There were 16,396 private certified aircraft at the end of 2014, out of a total of 29,162 private aircraft registered.

Basic Ultralights

BULAs were by far the quickest growing area of private aviation in 2014. In 2014 the category increased by 135 aircraft and accounted for 38% of the private fleet growth. There were 5,915 BULAs registered at the end of 2014. The enduring attraction of this category is undoubtedly its relatively low cost.

Amateur-builts

Amateur-builts were in the number three position again in 2014, increasing by 67 aircraft, down from an increase of 90 in 2013 and 98 in 2012. In 2014 the aircraft added were made up of 65 airplanes, four helicopters and four balloons, while the number of helicopters and airships decreased by four each. The number of gyroplanes remained unchanged at a total of 183. Amateur-builts made up 19% of the aircraft added to the private fleet in 2014.

Amateur builts now number 4,136 in Canada and include a wide variety of aircraft, from fixed wing airplanes, helicopters, gliders, gyroplanes to balloons, airships and even one ornithopter.

Owner-maintained

The O-M category added 26 aircraft in 2014, up from the 22 added in 2013, leaving the category in fourth spot once again ahead of advanced ultralights. By the end of 2014, there were 631 O-M aircraft on the registry, made up of 615 airplanes and 16 gliders. O-M aircraft made up 7% of the aircraft added to the private fleet in 2014.

This category has continued to suffer from low numbers of aircraft being moved from the certified category ever since the American FAA announced that O-M aircraft will never be allowed to fly in US airspace or sold in the USA. Overall this category continues to stagger along with a low degree of interest from owners.

Advanced Ultralights

Advanced Ultralights remained in fifth place for growth in 2014, increasing their numbers by only 17 airplanes, the same number added in 2013. Their growth in numbers in 2014 made up 5% of the private fleet increase and brought the total number of AULAs on the civil register to 1,210. By the category definition, all AULAs are powered, fixed wing aircraft.

The AULA category was introduced in 1991 and therefore 2014 was its 23rd year. The category has increased its numbers at an average of 52 aircraft per year and so can hardly be considered the success that was anticipated when it was started. As in the past five years, the number of AULAs added in 2014 was well below the average from the category's earlier years. The low sales figures are mostly likely linked to the high price of new AULAs and their American counter-parts, Light-Sport Aircraft.

Commercial Fleet

In 2014 the commercial aircraft fleet decreased by 49 aircraft to bring it down to 6,964. The numbers show an decrease of 21 airplanes and 29 helicopters, with no increases in any category.

In round numbers, at the end of 2014 the private fleet made up 80% of the aircraft in Canada, with the commercial fleet at 19% and the state fleet at 0.7%, all basically unchanged from 2013. As commercial aviation fails to grow or even shrinks over time private aviation is making up a greater proportion of the fleet.

Imports & Exports

Aircraft imports into Canada in 2014 numbered 619, which was down from 669 in 2013 and well below the 968 imported during the pre-recession days of 2008. In 2014, 850 aircraft were exported, giving a difference of 231 favouring exported aircraft over those imported.

Looking at 2014

World oil prices dropped below US$60 per barrel late in 2014 taking the Canadian dollar with it, as the world markets were temporarily over-supplied with oil. Oddly, while automotive gasoline prices dropped, avgas generally didn't, or at least hadn't yet by year end, often leaving it almost twice the price of car gas. If avgas prices do drop in 2015 this may encourage more flying to take place, but there is also a real risk in 2015 or 2016 of a sudden increase in oil prices, as the far eastern economies recover and demand surges in the face of a current loss of oil capital investment and the resulting supply shortages.

Note: Data for this report was taken from the Transport Canada Civil Aircraft Register and reflects the difference between the number of aircraft registered in Canada on 31 December 2013 and 31 December 2014. These statistics reflect the net number of aircraft built and imported, minus the number destroyed, scrapped and exported. Just because an aircraft is registered in Canada does not mean it is being flown and therefore the number of registered aircraft should not be confused with the amount of flying activity.